Questioning Whether Gary Cohn Will Stay: DealBook Briefing

Questioning Whether Gary Cohn Will Stay: DealBook Briefing

Mr. Landler and Ms. Haberman point out that Mr. Cohn is still waiting to see if Mr. Trump actually rolls out the tariffs — a fair question, given how quickly his boss appears to switch policy positions.

But if the White House does impose tariffs on imported aluminum and steel, will Mr. Cohn finally pull the trigger?

On a related note, let’s talk about the resuscitation of Mr. Ross’s political fortunes:

Axios, on Jan. 21: “President Donald Trump has put Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross out to pasture,” the publication reported, noting that Mr. Ross had been criticized for falling asleep in meetings.

Axios, today: “White House staff, most of whom were in the dark about Trump’s planned tariffs announcement, are referring to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, the victor in the policy coup, as ‘Chief Ross.’”

— Michael de la Merced


Stefan Simonsen/European Pressphoto Agency

The world is girding for a potential trade war

Expect today to be rough in the markets, after President Trump doubled down this morning on his threat to impose tariffs on international steel and aluminum. S. & P. 500 futures are down in premarket trading, after falling yesterday.

The current plan: A 25 percent tariff on steel and a 10 percent one on aluminum.

The winners: U.S. sellers of industrial metals, like AK Steel and U.S. Steel, whose stocks jumped yesterday; trade hard-liners like Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, Robert Lighthizer, the White House’s top trade negotiator, and Peter Navarro, its trade policy guru.

The losers: Big metal consumers like Ford, G.M., Boeing and United Technologies; free-trade proponents like Gary Cohn, who has threatened to resign; many Republican lawmakers; Brazil; and Canada.

The world’s response: China could retaliate with tariffs on some U.S. goods. The E.U. could, too. Japan and Korea are hoping that, as allies, they would be exempted — but they appear prepared to fight back.

The context: George W. Bush imposed tariffs on imported steel in 2002. He lifted them a year later.

Peter Eavis’s take: Mr. Trump’s tariffs may be quite narrow in focus and exist for a relatively short period. Investors could learn to live with those. But the U.S. economy and stock markets have some vulnerabilities that could magnify the damage from a trade war.

What could President Trump’s planned tariffs mean for Nafta?

Goldman Sachs’s economists wrote that while the potential tariff’s on imported steel and aluminum “could alleviate political pressure on the White House to pursue other trade restrictions in the near-term,” it would increase “the probability of trade-restrictive outcomes to other pending issues.”

On Nafta:

“We believe the most likely outcome in the near-term is the announcement of a few small agreements on technical trade issues, but we continue to expect negotiations to stall on major issues like rules of origin and government procurement. There is a good chance that this could eventually lead the President to announce he intends to withdraw from NAFTA, but such an announcement does not appear likely in the near term, in our view.”

On China’s practices regarding intellectual property and technology transfer:

“We expect that the Administration will ultimately announce restrictions on investment by Chinese companies in the US, and possibly broader trade restrictions, in response to its ongoing Section 301 investigation. The deadline for that decision is not until August, however, and it is not clear when an announcement in this area will be made.”


Ali Sharif Al Emadi, Qatar’s finance minister.

Zoubeir Souissi/Reuters

Did Kushner Companies seek money from Qatar’s finance minister last year?

An article in The Intercept says that not only did the real estate firm — which Jared Kushner led until joining the White House — try to convince Qatar to invest in its embattled 666 Fifth Avenue property in Manhattan, but that it spoke directly with the emirate’s top money man.

The meeting between Charles Kushner, Mr. Kushner’s father, and Ali Sharif Al Emadi of Qatar was last April, a month before Saudi Arabia and others set up a blockade of the emirate. Mr. Kushner supported the move, while Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did not.

More from Clayton Swisher and Ryan Grim of The Intercept:

The 30-minute meeting, according to two sources in the financial industry who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the potential transaction, included aides to both parties, and was held at a suite at the St. Regis Hotel in New York.

A follow-up meeting was held the next day in a glass-walled conference room at the Kushner property itself, though Al Emadi did not attend the second gathering in person.

A Kushner Companies spokeswoman said that the company doesn’t “do business with any sovereign funds.”

The context: Mr. Kushner’s family business has appeared to become more of a liability to his work in the White House. Remember that he held meetings with top financiers whose firms later lent money to Kushner Companies, which has aroused concerns. Or that several countries have reportedly discussed using his complicated financial ties as negotiating leverage over him.

— Michael de la Merced


Tom Brenner/The New York Times

Grading Trump’s management style

Mr. Trump has long thrived on chaos as an organizing principle. But how much disorder is too much?

Remember that the White House has suffered from: very public infighting; off-the-cuff policy proposals by the president; a historically high 34 percent turnover rate; officials threatening to quit to win policy arguments; and an array of investigations into advisers (including Mr. Trump’s daughter Ivanka) and cabinet members.

Jim Stewart spoke with a number of experts for their takes on how the president has been running his White House. Here’s a taster:

• Jeffrey Pfeffer of Stanford University, said of the White House’s turnover rate, “This reflects badly on his leadership.”

• Charles Elson of the University of Delaware said, “He isn’t bound by any traditional norms of management.”


Erin Schaff for The New York Times

Jerome Powell says the economy is not overheating

Here’s what the Federal Reserve chairman told the Senate Banking Committee: “Nothing is suggesting to me that wage inflation is at a point of accelerating. I would expect that some continued strengthening in the labor market can take place without causing inflation.”

But new data from the Commerce Department suggest the opposite:

• Consumer prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, rose 0.4 percent, the biggest increase since September.

• So-called core PCE, which excludes food and energy, advanced 0.3 percent in January — the largest gain since January 2017.

• Year-over-year core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose 1.5 percent in January.

In other Fed news: The White House plans to name Richard Clarida, an economist at Columbia University and an executive at Pimco, as the Fed’s vice chairman, the WSJ reported, citing unidentified sources.

The policy flyaround

• Mr. Trump may have switched his position on gun control again, after a meeting with the National Rifle Association. Georgia lawmakers punished Delta Air Lines for eliminating discounted fares for N.R.A. members. Kroger and L.L. Bean are the latest retailers to restrict gun sales to customers age 21 and older.

• An overhaul of the Dodd-Frank financial rules that would ease regulations on regional banks is moving toward a vote next week in the Senate. (Bloomberg)

• The venture capitalist Elliott Broidy, a longtime Republican donor, was in talks to earn millions if the Justice Department dropped its corruption investigation of a Malaysian government fund. (WSJ)

• Anthony Scaramucci publicly fretted that the White House chief of staff, John Kelly, would block the sale of his SkyBridge Capital to HNA of China. (Bloomberg)


Noah Berger/Associated Press

Who can show skin in Facebook ads?

Facebook has drawn criticism for inconsistencies regarding which body images are allowed in ads on its platform: a man’s bare chest was found acceptable, but a woman’s bare back was not. (The company later said the latter should have been.)

More from Sapna Maheshwari and Sheera Frenkel of the NYT:

The company has flagged a photo of a woman in a T-shirt reading in dim lighting, for example, while allowing a provocative image of a man’s bare stomach for an ad from a Facebook group dedicated to “steamy romance novels” called Beyond 50 Shades. That image, in which the man had his thumb on the inside of his pants, was incorrectly approved, a Facebook spokeswoman recently said.

Elsewhere in digital ads: Procter & Gamble says that most online advertising is a waste. And News Corporation is still pushing Google and Facebook to share more ad revenue.

The tech flyaround

• Jack Dorsey admits that Twitter still hasn’t done enough to address fake news and cyberbullying. (WSJ)

• Facebook has ended an experiment in some countries that separated news from other content — and that may have led to a rise in misinformation. (NYT)

• Germany has blamed Russian hackers for infiltrating its government’s data network. (NYT)

• Amazon hasn’t changed much at Whole Foods — yet. (NYT)

• Garrett Camp, a co-founder of Uber, is starting a virtual currency. (TechCrunch)

• Mark Carney of the Bank of England called for more regulation of virtual currencies. (CNBC)

• Google is considering whether to hire a construction start-up like Katerra to build thousands of apartments for employees and others in the San Francisco Bay Area. (The Information)

• Don’t count on 4G wireless service on the moon anytime soon. (NYT)

• A former Google employee is suing the company for allegedly restricting the hiring of white and Asian males for technical positions at YouTube. (WSJ)

• An additional 2.4 million Americans were affected by a cybersecurity breach at Equifax. (Axios)


Mike Blake/Reuters

Regulators mine into Broadcom’s bid for Qualcomm

On the U.S. front: Members of Cfius, the panel that reviews transactions for national security concerns, have debated whether it can step in before there’s even a deal, the WSJ reported, citing unidentified sources. Those who say it can point to Broadcom’s campaign to win a majority of seats on Qualcomm’s board as effectively a change in control, which will come to a head on March 6.

On the international front: European lawmakers are concerned about the privacy of E.U. citizens, according to the FT, because NXP — a chip maker that Qualcomm has agreed to buy — makes chips for German passports.

The deals flyaround

• Dell and VMware are working out the details of a combination of the two companies, though a deal is more than a month away, unidentified sources said. (CNBC)

• DoorDash has raised $535 million from SoftBank’s Vision Fund, GIC of Singapore and Sequoia Capital for a $1.4 billion valuation. (Recode)

• Carl Icahn has taken a stake in the Crock-Pot maker Newell Brands, amid the company’s fight with fellow activist investor Starboard Value. (Bloomberg)

• The Athletic has joined ABC News and The Atlantic as finalists to buy Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, unidentified sources said. (The Big Lead)

• GKN, a British industrial parts maker, is in talks to sell its auto components business to Dana Inc. of the U.S. to stave off a hostile takeover bid by Melrose. (FT)

• Nippon Life of Japan will buy an 85 percent stake in the U.S. insurer MassMutual for $982 million. (FT)

• Fosun of China has bought a majority stake in the lingerie maker Wolford for 55 million euros, about $67 million. (Reuters)


Maria Contreras-Sweet leads an investor group pursuing a purchase of most of the Weinstein Company.

Earl Wilson/The New York Times

A deal for Weinstein Company is back from the dead

At the beginning of the week, the offer by the businesswoman Maria Contreras-Sweet and the investor Rob Burkle appeared to have dissipated. But, after a meeting between the two sides at the offices of the New York attorney general, Eric Schneiderman, there is now an agreement.

What the deal entails, according to Brooks Barnes of the NYT:

• Paying off the studio’s $225 million in debt;

• Investing $275 million in the new business;

• Forming a $90 million fund for victims of Harvey Weinstein.

In other misconduct news: Two massage therapists have sued the casino mogul Steve Wynn in separate lawsuits, each accusing him of coercing them into sex more than a dozen times.


Wang K’aichicn/Visual China Group,via Getty Images

Revolving Door

Travis Kalanick has joined the board of Kareo, a medical software start-up. (Axios)

Brian Gu, JPMorgan’s chairman of Asia-Pacific investment banking, will join the Chinese electric carmaker Xiaopeng Motors as vice chairman and president. (WSJ)

Nancy Daniels, the president of TLC Network, will become the head of the Discovery Channel, replacing Rich Ross amid a ratings decline. (NYT)

Xavier Niel, the deputy chairman of the French telecommunications company Iliad, has joined K.K.R.’s board. (K.K.R.)

The Speed Read

• Four Wells Fargo directors plan to resign next month. The bank also disclosed that the Justice Department had ordered an independent investigation into misconduct allegations in its wealth-management business.

• Nasdaq has sued IEX, an electronic stock exchange, for allegedly infringing on seven of its patents by hiring former employees with knowledge of the technology. (Axios)

• The S.E.C. may be warming up to the idea of forced arbitration, unnamed sources said. (Bloomberg)

• According to the Hurun Report, the net worth of China’s Parliament and its advisory body has grown by nearly a third, to just below Switzerland’s annual economic output. (NYT)

• Harvard’s endowment made one big miscalculation: believing its top money managers were smarter than everyone else. (Bloomberg)

• Ye Jianming, who runs the conglomerate CEFC China Energy, is under investigation by the Chinese authorities, unnamed sources said. (Caixin)

• During his annual state of the nation address in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin effectively acknowledged that Russians cannot feed their families on restored imperial glory. (NYT)

• Row 7 Seed Company, co-founded by the chef Dan Barber, is aiming to build an audience for new vegetables (sweeter peppers, milder beets) that might otherwise never attract interest. (NYT)

• Color forecasters at Pantone have tremendous influence over the visible elements of the global economy — the parts of it that are designed, manufactured and purchased — though their profession itself is all but invisible. (NYT)

We’d love your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to bizday@nytimes.com.

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